Environment Ministry to Host Seedling Promotion and Distribution Exhibition in July | Prime Minister Celebrates Arrival of First AirAsia Cambodia Aircraft in Phnom Penh | Cambodia Reaffirms Commitment to Ottawa Convention on Landmines | Phnom Penh Gears Up for Its First Major Car Show at The Premier Centre Sen Sok |

Analyst Says Ukraine May Be "Most significant conflict since World War Two"

INTERNATIONAL: A U.S. based analyst has warned on Tuesday ,January 25, that "We are looking at potentially the most significant conflict since World War Two," as Western leaders have stepped up preparations for any Russian military action in Ukraine, with the United States focusing on how to protect energy supplies and Britain urging other European nations to get economic sanctions ready.

Tensions have remained high after NATO has announced on Monday it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets in response to a Russian troop build-up near its border with Ukraine.

 The Director of the Transatlantic Security Program, Andrea Kendall says; "I think we're looking at potentially the most significant conflict that we have seen since World War Two. When you look at the kind of composition, the size, the capabilities that Russia is building up on Ukraine's border, it suggests that they're preparing for a relatively significant invasion scenario where they could possibly encircle Kyiv and take half of eastern Ukraine. That's something we haven't seen in decades."

Kendall further says that in many ways, this is President Putin going back to address the outcome of the Cold War. He's looking to rewind time, to rewrite the rules of the European security order. He's looking to mitigate US influence in Eastern Europe and basically to get the United States out of what he sees as his sphere of influence. So it's about Ukraine, but it's also about much more than Ukraine.

She has also mentioned that Putin is gambling wildly. Putin’s 22 years in power is the riskiest endeavor he's embarked on. So there is a real risk that he is just grossly miscalculating about how easy this military move is going to be in Ukraine. You hear from people that President Putin is very isolated. He is an authoritarian leader in a highly personalized system. So there's always questions about the quality of information that he receives. Russian president could be grossly miscalculating about just how easy this is going to be. And he could also be miscalculating about Russian's tolerance for this.

Russia, which denies planning an attack, has said it was watching with "great concern". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeated Moscow's line that the crisis is being driven by U.S. and NATO actions, not the Russian troop build-up.

The United States and the European Union have threatened economic sanctions if Russia launches an invasion and Western leaders say unity is paramount, though differences have emerged among European nations over how best to respond.

"It is absolutely vital that the West is united now, because it is our unity now that will be much more effective in deterring any Russian aggression," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told parliament, urging " European friends" to be ready to deploy sanctions as soon as there was any incursion.

He has said Britain was discussing the possibility of banning Russia from the Swift global payments system with the United States, one of many potential measures to punish Moscow if it launches an offensive.

In Washington, Biden administration officials have said the United States was in talks with major energy-producing countries and companies around the world over a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

The European Union depends on Russia for around a third of its gas supplies. Any interruptions to Russia's gas supply to Europe would exacerbate an existing energy crisis caused by shortages.

Russia has tens of thousands of troops near Ukraine and is demanding security guarantees from the West, including a promise by NATO never to admit Ukraine. Moscow sees the former Soviet republic as a buffer between Russia and NATO countries.

The First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath has said he tensions over Ukraine have been felt on financial markets and the price of oil in recent days. An escalated conflict between Russia and Ukraine would be likely to further increase energy costs for many countries, keeping headline inflation rates elevated for longer.

In a sign of concern that an attack may come soon, Canada has said it was temporarily withdrawing families of its diplomats in Ukraine and Sweden's foreign ministry has also said it was advising against all non-essential travel to Ukraine, and all travel to Crimea and two regions in eastern Ukraine.

The U.S. State Department has said it is ordering diplomats' family members to leave and Britain has said it is withdrawing some staff and dependents from its embassy in Kyiv.

The United States has committed more than $650 million of security assistance to Ukraine in the past year and more than $2.7 billion in total since 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

PHOTO: INTERVIEW WITH ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, DIRECTOR OF THE TRANSATLANTIC SECURITY PROGRAM AT THE CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY ON SITUATION IN UKRAINE, VARIOUS FILE FOOTAGE RELATED TO UKRAINE


Related News